HAVANA – Funding to the Northwest Florida Water Management District to improve and complete flood hazard maps totals $16.8 million with a recent grant of $1.9 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The grant was approved by the District governing board this week and will improve flood risk maps primarily in Gadsden, Gulf, Calhoun, Leon and Liberty counties.
“FEMA notified us of additional grant funding under its new program, RISK MAP, to fill deficiencies that were recognized in processing flood hazard maps of the Apalachicola and Ochlockonee river basins,” said Ron Bartel, District Director of Resource Management. “This work will also support outreach for our coastal counties, including upgrades of our website, NWFWMDfloodmaps.com.”
“I am pleased with the diligent work of District staff that has persuaded FEMA to continue funding for data collection that will serve many water resource purposes,” said District Executive Director Douglas Barr. “More accurate flood maps and flood elevation data across northwest Florida will improve stormwater engineering and flood prevention planning and help protect lives and property.”
Actual cash match spent to date from the District’s general revenue source is about $133,326. Additionally, local governments have provided cash matches of $264,987 and in-kind efforts to help the District achieve comprehensive flood hazard mapping.
The public may access data at the NOAA Coastal Service Center Digital Coast: Data Access Viewer, http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/viewer.html or view a somewhat coarser version at USGS, http://nmviewogc.cr.usgs.gov/viewer.htm. The District’s web site, NWFWMDfloodmaps.com, also provides information about Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and will update detailed data sets as they become available.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Ex-FEMA director could help BP out of its disaster
WASHINGTON — James Lee Witt, America's go-to guy for disaster response, knows how to take an unpopular organization and turn it around. If BP hires the former Federal Emergency Management Agency director to help with community relations, it could further a makeover of the oil giant's Gulf Coast image.
Last week, the company's British CEO, Tony Hayward, stepped down from managing the day-to-day operations of the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. Hayward handed off the job to managing director Bob Dudley, a Mississippi native.
On Friday, BP and Witt's company were still hammering out the details of a contract. Dudley told reporters he asked Witt to go down to New Orleans with him to get some feedback on the company's response and what it could do in the future.
"As long as they get the job done, we don't care who they hire," said Kyle Plotkin, spokesman for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
A Dudley-Witt duo could be harder for Gulf Coast officials to criticize. For years Witt's consulting firm has been working with governments in that region to help with disaster planning and recovery.
"When James Lee Witt does something, people listen and respect it," said Bev Ciglar, a public policy professor at Penn State University. "I'm very, very surprised that he has not been more involved."
President Bill Clinton appointed Witt as FEMA director in 1993. At the time, the agency was considered one of the worst in the government after its poor responses to hurricanes Hugo and Andrew in 1989 and 1992. After Hugo thrashed South Carolina, the state's Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, called FEMA "the sorriest bunch of bureaucratic jackasses I've ever worked with."
That reputation changed under Witt, partly because of the new image he brought to the agency. In 1994, Witt made news simply by flying to the scene of a disaster the day it occurred.
Earlier this month, Witt told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that the Obama administration responded to the BP oil spill quickly. "They've got some of the smartest minds in the business coming up with solutions, but it seems to be going at a snail's pace," Witt said.
One of Witt's most valuable skills is his ability to talk about disasters, the people affected and how to help them, said George Haddow, who worked for Witt during the Clinton administration and is now a research scientist and adjunct professor at George Washington University's Institute of Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management.
"James Lee Witt knows a lot about how you communicate about disasters," Haddow said.
BP could use some help in that department. Officials estimate more than 100 million gallons of oil have leaked from the rig since the April 20 explosion.
The oil company executives' gaffes have angered Americans, particularly when Hayward said, "No one wants this over more than I do. I would like my life back."
Former Arkansas Sen. David Pryor said he called Vice President Joe Biden's office about a month ago to ask whether the Obama administration had reached out to Witt for assistance.
"I was mystified why he was not brought into the picture sooner, and frankly, I was frustrated about it," Pryor said.
As president-elect, Barack Obama sought Witt's guidance on homeland security and disaster response issues. FEMA's reputation had suffered a relapse after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when the Bush administration was slow and unprepared to respond.
James Lee Witt Associates is already working with Escambia and Okaloosa counties in Florida on their response to the BP oil spill, a company spokeswoman said.
Last week, the company's British CEO, Tony Hayward, stepped down from managing the day-to-day operations of the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. Hayward handed off the job to managing director Bob Dudley, a Mississippi native.
On Friday, BP and Witt's company were still hammering out the details of a contract. Dudley told reporters he asked Witt to go down to New Orleans with him to get some feedback on the company's response and what it could do in the future.
"As long as they get the job done, we don't care who they hire," said Kyle Plotkin, spokesman for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
A Dudley-Witt duo could be harder for Gulf Coast officials to criticize. For years Witt's consulting firm has been working with governments in that region to help with disaster planning and recovery.
"When James Lee Witt does something, people listen and respect it," said Bev Ciglar, a public policy professor at Penn State University. "I'm very, very surprised that he has not been more involved."
President Bill Clinton appointed Witt as FEMA director in 1993. At the time, the agency was considered one of the worst in the government after its poor responses to hurricanes Hugo and Andrew in 1989 and 1992. After Hugo thrashed South Carolina, the state's Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, called FEMA "the sorriest bunch of bureaucratic jackasses I've ever worked with."
That reputation changed under Witt, partly because of the new image he brought to the agency. In 1994, Witt made news simply by flying to the scene of a disaster the day it occurred.
Earlier this month, Witt told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that the Obama administration responded to the BP oil spill quickly. "They've got some of the smartest minds in the business coming up with solutions, but it seems to be going at a snail's pace," Witt said.
One of Witt's most valuable skills is his ability to talk about disasters, the people affected and how to help them, said George Haddow, who worked for Witt during the Clinton administration and is now a research scientist and adjunct professor at George Washington University's Institute of Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management.
"James Lee Witt knows a lot about how you communicate about disasters," Haddow said.
BP could use some help in that department. Officials estimate more than 100 million gallons of oil have leaked from the rig since the April 20 explosion.
The oil company executives' gaffes have angered Americans, particularly when Hayward said, "No one wants this over more than I do. I would like my life back."
Former Arkansas Sen. David Pryor said he called Vice President Joe Biden's office about a month ago to ask whether the Obama administration had reached out to Witt for assistance.
"I was mystified why he was not brought into the picture sooner, and frankly, I was frustrated about it," Pryor said.
As president-elect, Barack Obama sought Witt's guidance on homeland security and disaster response issues. FEMA's reputation had suffered a relapse after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when the Bush administration was slow and unprepared to respond.
James Lee Witt Associates is already working with Escambia and Okaloosa counties in Florida on their response to the BP oil spill, a company spokeswoman said.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
BP hires former FEMA director
(CBS) - BP is hoping a former FEMA director can help improve the company's response to he gulf oil spill.
The energy giant has hired James Lee Witt, who headed FEMA during the Clinton years.
In Florida, the first beach has been closed because of oil, and Mississippi is also fighting the mess.
The energy giant has hired James Lee Witt, who headed FEMA during the Clinton years.
In Florida, the first beach has been closed because of oil, and Mississippi is also fighting the mess.
FEMA to stop flood assistance today
RICHMOND — The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Disaster Recovery Center (DRC) in Madison County will cease operations today at 6 p.m.
It will reopen on Monday, June 28, as a U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) Disaster Loan Outreach Center (DLOC). The FEMA offices were set up due to the Presidential Disaster Declaration for the May 2 floods in Madison County.
The Disaster Loan Outreach Center in Madison County at 558 S. Keeneland Drive in Richmond will operate Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. until further notice.
SBA representatives will be available to explain the application process, help individuals complete loan applications, and answer related questions. Applicants who receive SBA loan applications must complete them to be considered for FEMA grants that cover personal property, vehicle repair or replacement, and moving and storage expenses. No one is obligated to accept a loan.
Anyone seeking information about low-interest disaster loans may call the SBA Customer Service Center toll-free at 1-800-659-2955 for assistance, Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., or Saturday and Sunday from 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Information on SBA programs also can be found at the SBA website, www.sba.gov/services/disasterassistance, or send an e-mail to disastercustomerservice@sba.gov.
Individuals and businesses affected by the flooding but have not registered for assistance, or have questions, are encouraged to call 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or (TTY) 1-800-462-7585, or go online at www.disasterassistance.gov.
The deadline for registering for both disaster assistance and SBA disaster loans is July 12.
It will reopen on Monday, June 28, as a U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) Disaster Loan Outreach Center (DLOC). The FEMA offices were set up due to the Presidential Disaster Declaration for the May 2 floods in Madison County.
The Disaster Loan Outreach Center in Madison County at 558 S. Keeneland Drive in Richmond will operate Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. until further notice.
SBA representatives will be available to explain the application process, help individuals complete loan applications, and answer related questions. Applicants who receive SBA loan applications must complete them to be considered for FEMA grants that cover personal property, vehicle repair or replacement, and moving and storage expenses. No one is obligated to accept a loan.
Anyone seeking information about low-interest disaster loans may call the SBA Customer Service Center toll-free at 1-800-659-2955 for assistance, Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., or Saturday and Sunday from 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Information on SBA programs also can be found at the SBA website, www.sba.gov/services/disasterassistance, or send an e-mail to disastercustomerservice@sba.gov.
Individuals and businesses affected by the flooding but have not registered for assistance, or have questions, are encouraged to call 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or (TTY) 1-800-462-7585, or go online at www.disasterassistance.gov.
The deadline for registering for both disaster assistance and SBA disaster loans is July 12.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Columbia police chief: Decision to place downtown cameras to be based on data
COLUMBIA — Columbia Police Department Chief Ken Burton is still reviewing the "nuts and bolts" involved in making a decision about downtown cameras.
The Columbia City Council charged Burton with the task of deciding if and where surveillance cameras should be placed downtown, in accordance with the downtown camera ordinance.
MoreStory
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According to a previous Missourian article, the Police Department's crime analyst created a crime "hot spot" map, which shows calls for police service in downtown Columbia. Burton said he wants to break this data down a little more to see if cameras are a viable option for downtown. Burton said he isn't leaning one way about whether downtown would benefit from surveillance cameras.
"We want to be completely objective about it and let the data speak for itself," Burton said.
Burton said he wants to bring hard data, not anecdotes, before the council. He said he doesn't want to decide where cameras should be placed based on stories he's heard about crime downtown or his opinions of crime downtown.
Burton said expects to bring data before the council in about 30 days.
The Columbia City Council charged Burton with the task of deciding if and where surveillance cameras should be placed downtown, in accordance with the downtown camera ordinance.
MoreStory
Related Articles
According to a previous Missourian article, the Police Department's crime analyst created a crime "hot spot" map, which shows calls for police service in downtown Columbia. Burton said he wants to break this data down a little more to see if cameras are a viable option for downtown. Burton said he isn't leaning one way about whether downtown would benefit from surveillance cameras.
"We want to be completely objective about it and let the data speak for itself," Burton said.
Burton said he wants to bring hard data, not anecdotes, before the council. He said he doesn't want to decide where cameras should be placed based on stories he's heard about crime downtown or his opinions of crime downtown.
Burton said expects to bring data before the council in about 30 days.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
BP Oil Spill: A Slippery Slope to FEMA Detention Camps?
BP Oil Spill: A Slippery Slope to FEMA Detention Camps?
— Amanda Voisard/Palm Beach Post/Zuma Press.
A government plot to round up citizens by force, "alien hybrids" on the move, and other rumors inspired by the Gulf tragedy.
— By Stephanie Mencimer
91 Comments | Post Comment
Thu Jun. 3, 2010 3:00 AM PDT
Is there a covert government plan to forcibly evacuate up to 50 million people from the Gulf Coast and move them into FEMA trailers somewhere in Missouri and elsewhere because of the oil spill? Some of the nation's survivalists are convinced that the Obama administration is plotting just such an operation. Last week, Greg Evensen, a former Kansas state trooper and a regular on the "Patriot" movement talk circuit, appeared on the Internet radio show "Shattering the Darkness" to warn listeners that government is moving to evacuate basically everyone from the coast of Texas to Cape Cod. Evensen says the move will come after these areas become uninhabitable due to an "oversaturation of benzene" from the chemical dispersants BP is using to try to clean up the oil leaking into the Gulf of Mexico.
Yes, even an eco-tragedy can breed conspiracy theories.
Interviewed by a man known only as "the Hawk," Evensen predicted on May 27 that the evacuations would begin sometime around June 15, after the government brings together "people who can be engaged in combat"—possibly including foreign troops—and stations them at 500-mile intervals. He predicted that people as far north as Cape Cod might have to be evacuated, given that the oil is likely to end up "on beaches of England." These events, Evensen warned, would show the "rolling thunder effect of how it will bring America to its knees," to which the Hawk responded, "This could be larger than anything we could ever imagine."
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In an interview with Mother Jones, Evensen explained that he had heard about this massive governmental operation from a "buffet meal of state and local law enforcement" sources, many of whom find him—rather than the other way around—thanks to his media appearances and Internet postings. (Evensen lives in Michigan.)
The podcast of this show soon made its way into the Tea Party world and was circulating on various listservs this week, with headlines like "Forced evacuations of 40 million begin in less than two weeks. Anyone within a thousand miles of the Gulf of Mexico needs to listen to every word of this." John Kaminiski, a "truther" who believes Jews blew up the World Trade Center, warned in an email that "If you don't leave now, you will never make it. You will either die on the road, or in a FEMA camp. The troops are already in place."
One wonders how many Tea Partiers listened all the way through to the end of the Hawk's show. Those who did might have questioned Evensen's claims after he started discussing "previously unseen ground units," possibly made up of "alien hybrids" masquerading as US troops, that were "emerging from areas in the Southwest and heading in an easterly direction." From the oil spill to FEMA camps to an alien invasion—it's the X Files gone green.
The giant spill has already inspired plenty of dubious speculation on the right. Early on, Rush Limbaugh suggested that "environmental whackos" had blown up the Deepwater Horizon oil rig to prevent more offshore drilling, a theme echoed by other conservative talkers.
Evensen has all but made a franchise out of predicting when and where government troops will round up the American people and pack them off to FEMA detention centers. Described by the New York Times as a militia leader, he makes the rounds of "Patriot" radio shows with such folks as Oath Keeper member "Sheriff" Richard Mack, and he features commentary by Larry Pratt on his website. Pratt, whom Evensen calls an acquaintance, is also a longtime militia hero and founder of Gun Owners of America.
Last year, Evensen repeatedly suggested that the government was planning to set up roadblocks to force people to get the H1N1 vaccine or tag them with a steel bracelet with a microchip that would indicate that they’d been vaccinated. Anyone who refused, according to Evensen, would be hauled off to a camp.
When none of that happened, Evensen had to make a retraction. But that didn't seem to dampen the demand for his survivalist seminars or radio appearances. And Evensen says that he doesn't claim to be 100 percent accurate. "We're watchmen, if you will," he says, explaining that he just puts information out there for people to assess for themselves. He doesn’t mention that doomsday predictions are good for business: He sells DVDs on "Castle Defense" and other "defensive planning" materials on his website (along with CDs of "Hymns from the Heartland," performed by Evenson himself)—all of which can be purchased with gold in lieu of currency. He says he also offers seminars and survivalist trainings across the country.
For the record, Larry Chambers, a Coast Guard petty officer at the DeepWater Horizon Incident unified area command in Robert, Louisiana, says that he’s never heard of any plans for the government to evacuate the entire Southeastern coast. "That's not going to happen," he says. (But isn't this what you’d expect him to say?)
Chambers explains that the government is making contingency plans to evacuate people in the event of a hurricane—which it has real concerns about because of how heavy winds might affect the clean-up effort, and because of the large numbers of extra personnel in the region working on disaster management. "I can understand why people may even start to think about conspiracies,” Chambers says. “It’s huge. We’ve never dealt with anything like this. People are upset."
As for FEMA, a spokesperson seemed rather perplexed by my questions about whether the agency plans to detain millions of Americans in trailers in Missouri after a mass evacuation. In an email, an agency press secretary named Rachel Racusen wrote, "FEMA continues to support the lead federal agencies for the response to the BP oil spill, the Department of Homeland Security, the Coast Guard and the Department of the Interior. To date that support has included help with staffing needs, as well as coordination and recovery expertise." Evensen might take that as a "yes."
— Amanda Voisard/Palm Beach Post/Zuma Press.
A government plot to round up citizens by force, "alien hybrids" on the move, and other rumors inspired by the Gulf tragedy.
— By Stephanie Mencimer
91 Comments | Post Comment
Thu Jun. 3, 2010 3:00 AM PDT
Is there a covert government plan to forcibly evacuate up to 50 million people from the Gulf Coast and move them into FEMA trailers somewhere in Missouri and elsewhere because of the oil spill? Some of the nation's survivalists are convinced that the Obama administration is plotting just such an operation. Last week, Greg Evensen, a former Kansas state trooper and a regular on the "Patriot" movement talk circuit, appeared on the Internet radio show "Shattering the Darkness" to warn listeners that government is moving to evacuate basically everyone from the coast of Texas to Cape Cod. Evensen says the move will come after these areas become uninhabitable due to an "oversaturation of benzene" from the chemical dispersants BP is using to try to clean up the oil leaking into the Gulf of Mexico.
Yes, even an eco-tragedy can breed conspiracy theories.
Interviewed by a man known only as "the Hawk," Evensen predicted on May 27 that the evacuations would begin sometime around June 15, after the government brings together "people who can be engaged in combat"—possibly including foreign troops—and stations them at 500-mile intervals. He predicted that people as far north as Cape Cod might have to be evacuated, given that the oil is likely to end up "on beaches of England." These events, Evensen warned, would show the "rolling thunder effect of how it will bring America to its knees," to which the Hawk responded, "This could be larger than anything we could ever imagine."
Advertisement
Advertisement
In an interview with Mother Jones, Evensen explained that he had heard about this massive governmental operation from a "buffet meal of state and local law enforcement" sources, many of whom find him—rather than the other way around—thanks to his media appearances and Internet postings. (Evensen lives in Michigan.)
The podcast of this show soon made its way into the Tea Party world and was circulating on various listservs this week, with headlines like "Forced evacuations of 40 million begin in less than two weeks. Anyone within a thousand miles of the Gulf of Mexico needs to listen to every word of this." John Kaminiski, a "truther" who believes Jews blew up the World Trade Center, warned in an email that "If you don't leave now, you will never make it. You will either die on the road, or in a FEMA camp. The troops are already in place."
One wonders how many Tea Partiers listened all the way through to the end of the Hawk's show. Those who did might have questioned Evensen's claims after he started discussing "previously unseen ground units," possibly made up of "alien hybrids" masquerading as US troops, that were "emerging from areas in the Southwest and heading in an easterly direction." From the oil spill to FEMA camps to an alien invasion—it's the X Files gone green.
The giant spill has already inspired plenty of dubious speculation on the right. Early on, Rush Limbaugh suggested that "environmental whackos" had blown up the Deepwater Horizon oil rig to prevent more offshore drilling, a theme echoed by other conservative talkers.
Evensen has all but made a franchise out of predicting when and where government troops will round up the American people and pack them off to FEMA detention centers. Described by the New York Times as a militia leader, he makes the rounds of "Patriot" radio shows with such folks as Oath Keeper member "Sheriff" Richard Mack, and he features commentary by Larry Pratt on his website. Pratt, whom Evensen calls an acquaintance, is also a longtime militia hero and founder of Gun Owners of America.
Last year, Evensen repeatedly suggested that the government was planning to set up roadblocks to force people to get the H1N1 vaccine or tag them with a steel bracelet with a microchip that would indicate that they’d been vaccinated. Anyone who refused, according to Evensen, would be hauled off to a camp.
When none of that happened, Evensen had to make a retraction. But that didn't seem to dampen the demand for his survivalist seminars or radio appearances. And Evensen says that he doesn't claim to be 100 percent accurate. "We're watchmen, if you will," he says, explaining that he just puts information out there for people to assess for themselves. He doesn’t mention that doomsday predictions are good for business: He sells DVDs on "Castle Defense" and other "defensive planning" materials on his website (along with CDs of "Hymns from the Heartland," performed by Evenson himself)—all of which can be purchased with gold in lieu of currency. He says he also offers seminars and survivalist trainings across the country.
For the record, Larry Chambers, a Coast Guard petty officer at the DeepWater Horizon Incident unified area command in Robert, Louisiana, says that he’s never heard of any plans for the government to evacuate the entire Southeastern coast. "That's not going to happen," he says. (But isn't this what you’d expect him to say?)
Chambers explains that the government is making contingency plans to evacuate people in the event of a hurricane—which it has real concerns about because of how heavy winds might affect the clean-up effort, and because of the large numbers of extra personnel in the region working on disaster management. "I can understand why people may even start to think about conspiracies,” Chambers says. “It’s huge. We’ve never dealt with anything like this. People are upset."
As for FEMA, a spokesperson seemed rather perplexed by my questions about whether the agency plans to detain millions of Americans in trailers in Missouri after a mass evacuation. In an email, an agency press secretary named Rachel Racusen wrote, "FEMA continues to support the lead federal agencies for the response to the BP oil spill, the Department of Homeland Security, the Coast Guard and the Department of the Interior. To date that support has included help with staffing needs, as well as coordination and recovery expertise." Evensen might take that as a "yes."
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
NOAA Forecasts 'Active to Extremely Active' Atlantic Hurricane Season
CAMP SPRINGS, Maryland, June 1, 2010 (ENS) - An "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins today, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms with top winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
The named storms will include eight to 14 hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher.
Three to seven of those hurricanes could be major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of at least 111 mph, NOAA predicts.
This outlook exceeds the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
As with every hurricane season, said Lubchenco, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
The Climate Prediction Center says that expected factors supporting this outlook are:
Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Ni�o in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Hurricane Rita, September 2005. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top 10 for the most named storms. The year 2005 is in first place with 28 named storms.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop," said Bell.
Florida State University scientists who have developed a unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy also are forecasting an unusually active season this year.
Scientist Tim LaRow and his colleagues at FSU's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies say there will be an average of 17 named storms with 10 of those storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.
"It looks like it will be a very busy season, and it only takes one hurricane making landfall to have devastating effects," LaRow said. "The predicted high number of tropical systems means there is an increased chance that the eastern United States or Gulf Coast will see a landfall this year."
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready."
"These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans," Fugate said. "You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continually monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico "is not likely to have a significant impact" on the formation of hurricanes, NOAA scientists say in a May 27 statement.
Where there is likely to be damage, however, is when storm surges carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, and also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
LaRow said, "The oil spill will probably have little influence on the hurricane season, but we don't know for sure since this spill is unprecedented. It's uncertain how exactly the atmospheric and oceanic conditions might change if the spill continues to grow."
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry (Photo courtesy USCG)
One person who has deep knowledge of both the behavior of hurricanes and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will be at the helm of the U.S. Coast Guard response to the coming Atlantic hurricane season.
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, who has been serving as federal on-scene coordinator for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response since the oil rig exploded on April 20, today will rotate back to her role as Commander of the Eighth Coast Guard District, to ensure continuity of leadership during the 2010 hurricane season.
Rear Admiral James Watson, who has been her deputy since April 23, will assume the role of federal on-scene coordinator.
"The plan for Rear Admiral Landry to return to her command of the Eighth District at the beginning of the hurricane season has been the strategy since the beginning of this response," said Admiral Robert Papp, commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. "It is critically important that she make sure the Eighth Coast Guard District forces are ready for a potentially busy hurricane season in the midst of this environmental disaster."
"After my time as federal on-scene coordinator, I have a deep understanding of the impact this tragedy will have on the states in the Eighth District," said Landry. "I commit to working closely with Rear Adm. Watson on our mutual goal of bringing the affected areas and communities through this disaster and seeing that they are made whole."
A hurricane's winds rotate counter-clockwise, so, NOAA explains, a hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast, while a hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
However, NOAA cautions, "the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement."
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins today, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms with top winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
The named storms will include eight to 14 hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher.
Three to seven of those hurricanes could be major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of at least 111 mph, NOAA predicts.
This outlook exceeds the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
As with every hurricane season, said Lubchenco, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
The Climate Prediction Center says that expected factors supporting this outlook are:
Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Ni�o in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Hurricane Rita, September 2005. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top 10 for the most named storms. The year 2005 is in first place with 28 named storms.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop," said Bell.
Florida State University scientists who have developed a unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy also are forecasting an unusually active season this year.
Scientist Tim LaRow and his colleagues at FSU's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies say there will be an average of 17 named storms with 10 of those storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.
"It looks like it will be a very busy season, and it only takes one hurricane making landfall to have devastating effects," LaRow said. "The predicted high number of tropical systems means there is an increased chance that the eastern United States or Gulf Coast will see a landfall this year."
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready."
"These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans," Fugate said. "You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continually monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico "is not likely to have a significant impact" on the formation of hurricanes, NOAA scientists say in a May 27 statement.
Where there is likely to be damage, however, is when storm surges carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, and also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
LaRow said, "The oil spill will probably have little influence on the hurricane season, but we don't know for sure since this spill is unprecedented. It's uncertain how exactly the atmospheric and oceanic conditions might change if the spill continues to grow."
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry (Photo courtesy USCG)
One person who has deep knowledge of both the behavior of hurricanes and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will be at the helm of the U.S. Coast Guard response to the coming Atlantic hurricane season.
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, who has been serving as federal on-scene coordinator for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response since the oil rig exploded on April 20, today will rotate back to her role as Commander of the Eighth Coast Guard District, to ensure continuity of leadership during the 2010 hurricane season.
Rear Admiral James Watson, who has been her deputy since April 23, will assume the role of federal on-scene coordinator.
"The plan for Rear Admiral Landry to return to her command of the Eighth District at the beginning of the hurricane season has been the strategy since the beginning of this response," said Admiral Robert Papp, commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. "It is critically important that she make sure the Eighth Coast Guard District forces are ready for a potentially busy hurricane season in the midst of this environmental disaster."
"After my time as federal on-scene coordinator, I have a deep understanding of the impact this tragedy will have on the states in the Eighth District," said Landry. "I commit to working closely with Rear Adm. Watson on our mutual goal of bringing the affected areas and communities through this disaster and seeing that they are made whole."
A hurricane's winds rotate counter-clockwise, so, NOAA explains, a hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast, while a hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
However, NOAA cautions, "the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement."
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